Will Pakistan stop the Nuclear Deal

The ruling UPA govt. has put a lot of energy in saving the Nuke deal in India, but has it underestimated the problems in international diplomacy. The Indian press shies away from reporting the problems of India in international diplomacy, as it may be labeled unpatriotic. But that does not make international diplomacy any easier. India seems to have learnt few lessons from its failed bid to the UN Security Council. Getting the deal through the 45 member countries of Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) will demand the best from Indian Diplomats and politicians.

Pakistan, which has always been regarded as a equal to India, in strategic terms by the western powers, will not easily let this parity with India go. Lately Pakistan has realized that it is lagging behind India on all counts and realizes that its nuclear arsenal is the only thing that makes it important to world powers. Secondly its status as an ally to the west in war on terror is also important for the west. Thirdly, it finds an ally in the Oil rich Saudi Arabia, when it comes to matter of aid based on Islam. For all three reasons, in the circles of international diplomacy, it is able to throw a lot more weight than its size merits,

Pakistan did play a role in India's failure to get the UN Security Council. Although USA and China don't support it openly, but it does get the diplomatic help it needs from both of them. Pakistan projects the civil nuclear reason for accelerated arms race in the sub-continent. Although Pak is known for its role in Nuclear proliferation, and India for its role in Non-proliferation, this time Pak will get support from the Non-proliferation lobby. Nuclear non-proliferation holds strong sentiments in some of the NSG member countries like Australia, Japan, Canada and some European countries, where the voters will put all the pressure on their government, not to support India.

The Non-proliferation lobby, will present India's case as rewarding the culprit. As India has not signed the NPT and opposes it still on the grounds of it being not equal, others who have not signed NPT will also be inspired to follow India’s route to legitimacy. Others like Iran, Pakistan, North Korea to pursue Nuclear weapons in the hope that they will be get the desired legitimacy in due course of time as all have genuine need for cheap energy, one of the reasons used by Indian govt to convince people to back the treaty.

Pakistan will also argue, that if energy is so much required in India, why is India delaying the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline, which can bring energy and peace, by making strong links in economies across the border. Pakistan has increased efforts to stop the treaty in its tracks. It has sent letters to NSG countries warning of arms race. It has also threatened to pull out of Nuclear control treaties like FMCT,(Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty). This has stirred the threat of nuclear proliferation even among those who were still indifferent. Pakistan also holds significant weight among US law makers as they see it as a vital ally in war on terror. Though many are fed up with the games Pakistan is playing in Afghanistan, but there is little they can do to not to support Pakistan. For this reason, getting the deal through the US congress before the end of George Bush term as president looks too tough a task.

Strategically, as is being projected, that the US will use India as a counter weight to China, China has always been using Pakistan to keep India busy. Chinese would demand strong concession from USA and others to allow India the same privileges that it enjoys. Further, China still does not forgive India for supporting Tibet and has little reasons to allow India or any other Asian country a greater size in the international arena.

The ruling Congress tried to sell the deal as an important milestone in India-US relationships and greatly underestimated the ability of Indian politicians to spin a different story on it. The left and other centre-left went to the press showing it as submission to US and even calling it anti-Muslim. It was when all the damage had been done, that they started emphasizing the Nuclear-energy as an solution to India's energy requirement. For a country, which got a bad deal in Enron power plant in Maharashtra in late nineties and for which GE took the govt. to court, the opposition quickly and easily showed it as a treaty for the benefit of big US corporations.

The scientific community, the politicians and the people of India, still remain divided over the real benefits of the deal. If Manmohan Singh and the Congress party, after winning a slender trust vote, loose the Nuke deal for reasons associated to Pakistan, it will be one of the biggest embarrassment both can ever face and can give a decisive blow to their chances in the looming elections.

Abhinav

30 July 2008